Indian stock markets experienced a second consecutive day of losses, with the Sensex tumbling 852 points, as crude oil prices surpassed USD 100 per barrel due to stalled US-Iran negotiations and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
While far from being a currency war, India does not have much of an option but to depreciate to accommodate its exports at a time when China shows its intent to let its currency depreciate.
Gold extended its record-breaking run to breach the Rs 1.5 lakh per 10-gram mark in futures trade on Tuesday, while silver surged to a lifetime high of Rs 3.27 lakh per kg as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid mounting global tensions. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for February delivery climbed Rs 6,861, or 4.7 per cent, to record Rs 1,52,500 per 10 grams after settling at Rs 1,45,639 per 10 grams in the previous session.
Foreign investors have withdrawn a record Rs 1.14 lakh crore from Indian equities in March, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening rupee, and concerns about crude oil prices.
Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors position themselves for the upcoming Union Budget and the US Fed's interest rate decision, where expectations are muted.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew a substantial amount from Indian equities in the first half of March, driven by geopolitical tensions, rupee depreciation, and concerns about crude oil prices.
Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu said the reduction in airport charges is aimed at containing airfare increases and supporting both airlines and passengers.
Many travellers are now opting for domestic destinations like Goa, Kerala, Rajasthan, Lakshadweep, Himachal Pradesh, and the North East.
Remittances from West Asia in March rose sharply amid the conflict in the region, with industry insiders estimating inflows to be 20-30 per cent higher than what is usual in a month.
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
Prices of televisions are expected to rise by 3-4 per cent from January next year on account of the rising cost of memory chips and depreciation of the rupee, which recently crossed the 90-to-a-dollar mark for the first time.
India's foreign exchange reserves decreased by USD 11.413 billion to USD 698.346 billion during the week ending March 20, primarily due to a significant reduction in gold reserves, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Gold prices experienced a significant drop in futures trading due to global selloff, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar. Analysts predict a continued downward trend amid geopolitical tensions and potential rate hikes.
Foreign investors have remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget amid expectations of limited policy changes.
ICICI Bank reported a 9.28 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 14,755 crore for the March quarter of FY26, primarily driven by a nearly 90 per cent reduction in provisioning. The bank's executive director, Sandeep Batra, noted strong asset growth but expressed caution regarding the geopolitical situation in West Asia.
So far this year, the rupee has fallen by 4.2 per cent, the worst among its Asian peers.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
National Association of Software & Services Companies President Kiran Karnik has said that information technology and business process outsourcing industry in India is beginning to see an 'opportunity loss' on account of the rupee appreciation against the dollar.
Indian equities declined on Friday, with the benchmark Nifty posting its worst weekly fall since September, as foreign investor sentiment remained weak amid tepid earnings growth and little progress on the India-US trade front.
Domestic institutional investors, on the other hand, made a net investment of Rs 1.13 trillion during this period.
The Indian rupee may remain under depreciation pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit, said the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. It said the "risks to the current account balance stem from multiple sources". The country's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2 per cent in April-June due to higher trade gap, as per latest data of the Reserve Bank of India.
As the rupee remains under pressure due to several headwinds and the uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been stepping in only to calm volatility, not to stop the fall.
The Indian rupee depreciated a modest 2.9 per cent in the first nine months of the current fiscal, performing better than other currencies like the Canadian Dollar, South Korean Won and the Brazilian Real, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. The value of the Indian Rupee (INR) is market-determined, with no target or specific level or band.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
Sustained month-end demand from banks and importers weighed.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
Investing in gold trumped most other asset classes in terms of compounded annualised returns over the long term, suggests a report by FundsIndia.
It is shocking that the rupee has crossed the 65 mark vis-a-vis US dollar, Orissa chief minister said.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
The BSE Sensex has been one of the top-performing areas of investment in the past 40 years, consistently delivering double-digit returns in rupee terms, beating assets such as global equities, precious metals, and fixed income.
With discretionary spending still under pressure, the information technology (IT) services industry continued to face an uncertain demand environment in the third quarter of 2025-26 (Q3FY26).
After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.
'In my entire career, whenever friends, relatives, or associates have sought my counsel, I have told them consistently: Stay away from equities. Buy gold. Place funds in fixed deposits. Acquire some raw land.' 'That is all one genuinely needs to build meaningful, enduring wealth, without the attendant anxiety of equity market participation.'
India's forex reserves decreased by $2.119 billion to $723.608 billion during the week ended February 20, according to the RBI.
IndiGo airline will face near-term pressure on profitability from rising fuel prices following the escalation of conflict in West Asia, though it is likely to pass on higher costs to passengers over time because its ticket booking cycle is relatively short, according to a report by Moody's Ratings.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
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